In Eurozone Disaster Scenario, Travel Could Lose $88B | Fox Business

A eurozone disaster would “wreak havoc” on the U.S. business travel industry and cause tens of billions of dollars in losses over the next two years, a new industry study shows.

In an extreme scenario, which includes the unlikely dissolution of the eurozone, the travel industry could take an $88 billion hit, according to the Global Business Travel Association.

With trips falling as much as 9% and spending dropping 16%, the severest case, which also assumes a global credit crunch and private banking meltdown, would bring travel to levels not seen since the recession in 2008.

However, far more likely is a prolonged recession in Europe, or GDP sinking between 1% and 1.5% over the next five quarters. That would result in business travel growth flattening in 2012 and 2013, the study shows, with spending falling 7%, or $40 billion, and trips sliding 5%, or by 42 million.

If things remain the same and Europe is merely hit by a mini recession, as expected, U.S. travel spending would continue to grow, albeit slowly, the study shows. Spending would increase by $263.5 billion in 2012 and $277.3 billion the year after, with trips climbing 443.1 million and 443.6 million, respectively.

The outlook, conducted by Rockport Analytics using a type of hypothetical complex model based on GBTA’s Business Travel Quarterly Outlook, was designed to examine the potential effects of a more serious European debt crisis on business travel in the U.S.

via In Eurozone Disaster Scenario, Travel Could Lose $88B | Fox Business.

Strange Random Travel Quote:

“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a cash advance.” – Bumper sticker

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Posted on February 16, 2012, in Article and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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